Apple TV+ vs. Disney+: How much can Apple really charge?

Disney just held their annual D23 event, jam-packed with new programming and information about their upcoming Disney+ streaming service and Apple has released more trailers for the shows set to debut on their upcoming Apple TV+ streaming service.

And… one of these things is not like the other. So, what does it all mean for Disney, for Apple, and for us? Let's figure it out.

Disney+

Where to start with Disney+? Specific to my interests, in addition to the already announced Falcon and The Winter Solider — and, please, Marvel, the man's name is Captain America now, get it right — WandaVision, Loki, and Hawkeye shows, Marvel Studios boss Kevin Feige added three more to the list: Ms. Marvel, She-Hulk, and Moon Knight.

All with the same star-power you see in the MCU movies, and with stories that intertwine with those movies — probably the most successful and certainly the most audacious in history.

For Star Wars, in addition to the Mandalorian and the Cassian Andor show, which we knew about, and the return of Clone Wars, which alongside Rebels, is so good it kinda just clowns all the movies since Empire, we'll be getting a new Ewan McGregor Obi Wan show.

And, since, with the Fox purchase, Disney now effectively owns 80% of our childhoods, there was even more for fans of the other brands, from High School Musical to Lizzy McGuire, to Muppets.

We won't get all of it all at once, of course. In fact, we'll get barely any of it at launch beyond the Mandalorian. And it won't be dumped for binging. It'll be weekly releases like Game of Thrones was on HBO. But it'll start flowing hot and heavy going into 2021 at launch.

It will have catalog content though, including the Simpsons from the Fox purchase.

Disney+ is set to debut in the U.S., Canada, and The Netherlands on November 12, 2019, and in Australia and New Zealand a week later, on November 19, 2019, and to continue rolling out to the rest of the EU in early 2020, and Eastern Europe and South America in 2021.

It'll be available on pretty much every streaming screen and box, including Apple's and the TV app — but strangely not Amazon. At least not so far.

And it'll cost $7 a month or $70 a year in the U.S., though D23 fan club members in the U.S. can get an even bigger discount for a limited time if they sign up for 3-years. There'll also be a Disney+, ESPN, and Hulu-with-ads bundle for $13 a month.

Apple TV+

Apple, by comparison, has said relatively little about Apple TV+.

I was at the big event they held in March, when the lights went out and came back on, and every time another huge star was on the stage, from Spielberg to Aniston to Corel to Mamoa, to Oprah.

There are no huge franchise plays, like Disney is pulling with Marvel and Star Wars. No, I'm a Mac: The Series, or the Adventures of Liam, Robot Deconstructor.

But there's a galactic ton of the aforementioned star power, and programming like The Morning Show, For All Mankind, Amazing Stories, See, Dickinson, Peanuts in Space, and more.

Many of which just got their trailers pushed out.

Since Apple doesn't own a studio or production house, at least not yet, and hasn't licensed any older shows that we know of, TV+ won't have any catalog content available at launch.

No official launch date has been given yet, other than this fall, but it will hit all 100+ countries that already have Apple's recently updated TV app.

And, it'll be available on Apple devices, Samsung, LG, Sony, and Visio smart TVs, and streaming boxes including Roku and Amazon.

No word yet on pricing either, which is where this all gets very interesting.

Apple's currents subscription services, News+ and Music both cost $10 a month for standard, single subscriptions.

Rumor has it, Apple's upcoming Arcade video game service will be $5, but there's been no official word on that either.

The fractured fiefdoms

Netflix pricing has gone up and become kind of convoluted over the last few years. It starts at $9 a month for 1 screen in standard resolution, or 480p, then goes to $13 a month for 2 screens in HD 1080p, or $16 for 4 screens in 4K.

Unlike Disney and Apple, which have massive revenue generators outside of content streaming, Netflix has to make all its money off of this one, single business. They're Palm or BlackBerry compared to Samsung or Microsoft in the phone space. Their strengths include their investment in original programming, like Stranger Things, and their back catalog, primarily of licensed content.

But, that part is changing. Office is leaving. So is Friends. The Marvel stuff like Daredevil and Jessica Hones has also already been canceled. That's because every other studio is launching a streaming service or several of their own, and bringing everything home.

This, as a consumer, is the fundamental problem with video streaming today. Apple Music, Spotify, all of that is great. $10 or so for effectively all the music. But imagine if it was like video today. $10 for Sony Music. $10 for Warner Music. Oh, U2 and the Beatles are big, they charge $10 just for themselves. $20 for Taylor Swift and Metallica.

Video doesn't want to end up like music but they're quickly creating a fractured set of fiefdoms that we, their customers, may not want to end up in either.

People have already talked about subscribing to Netflix for one month, binging everything from that year, then unsubscribing and doing the same with Disney+, HBO Max, TV+, all the streams. At least until the services try to restrict that too.

It's unclear exactly how much compelling content Disney+ will have for me at launch. I hope the Mandalorian will start to redeem Star Wars again, but all the Marvel stuff will take a couple years to roll out. Maybe the catalog content will defray that a bit, but the problem catalog content solves is primarily boredom. I just finished watching the hot new show, now keep me entertained.

Netflix has tons of that, even with the losses, and I often don't find anything to solve my boredom fix. At least not compared to all the stuff I can find on YouTube. And, yeah, I pay for Premium.

But, Apple isn't even going to have a catalog to fall back on, again as far as we know. Just a few hot new shows now with more on their way. And, if they get a Game of Thrones or Stranger Things, hell, if they get a couple or even a few, that'll be great. But how much will it really be worth in terms of monthly dollars?

Amazon, I think smartly, bundles its original programming and licensed content with its annual Prime subscription. It's just one of the many benefits of the program.

I'm not suggesting Apple give TV+ away for free. That's almost anathema to the company. And I'm sure there are some fans who'll pay $10 just to see Aniston or Oprah. But maybe not in service-sustaining numbers.

That's why I continue to think a low price like $5 or even $6 makes sense. But offering it as part of an Apple+ bundle makes even more sense. Hell, they can charge $10 by itself if they absolutely feel they have to, but make it just a couple or five bucks extra to every existing Apple Music customer. Apple News customer. iCloud customer. And then offer a grand unified bundle for like $20 that just has it all.

A billion devices in our pockets isn't cool. A billion people suddenly added to all the services, that's cool.